One crop breeding cycle from starvation

In the race against world hunger, we're running out of time. By 2050, the global population will have grown and urbanized so much that we will need to produce 87 percent more of the four primary food crops - rice, wheat, soy, and maize - than we do today.

At the same time, the climate is projected to change over the next 30 years, with warmer temperatures and more carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Crop plants can adapt to change through evolution, but at a much slower rate than the changes we are causing in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the land available for growing crop plants is unlikely to expand to accommodate the predicted rise in demand. In fact, land suited to food crop production is being lost on a global scale.

"We have to start increasing production now, faster than we ever have. Any innovation we make today won't be ready to go into farmers' fields for at least 20 years, because we'll need time for testing, product development, and approval by government agencies. On that basis, 2050 is not so far off. That's why we say we're one crop breeding cycle away from starvation," says University of Illinois crop scientist Stephen P. Long.

Researchers at U of I, along with their large, multi-institution team, say a solution lies in genetically engineering photosynthetic mechanisms to take advantage of the projected rise in global temperatures and CO2, and to achieve much higher yields on the same amount of land.

Under higher levels of CO2, such as those projected for future climates, key enzyme Rubisco becomes much more efficient and photosynthesis rates naturally increase as it makes fewer mistakes.

However, rising temperatures are projected to accompany increased CO2. Unfortunately, Rubisco's increased efficiency under high CO2 begins to break down in hot climates. That's why we are looking to improve Rubisco so that it will operate efficiently in both high temperature and high CO2 conditions.