The virus, H5N1, which was first isolated in humans in 1997, has not started a pandemic in a full decade of trying, so a few flu experts think it never will.
But the mainstream view is less optimistic. Viruses mutate constantly, many experts point out. And when one has already acquired the ability to jump species, occasionally spread from human to human and kill 60 percent of the people who catch it, it is far too early to dismiss it.
So even though the human death toll from H5N1 is still below 200, scientists around the world are racing to study the ways in which it might mutate to spread easily among humans.
The 1918 Spanish flu, they argue, was not even noticed until it had killed thousands. It might have been gathering virulence for years, hidden in the background of seasonal flu deaths.
Today’s H5N1 flu is probably changing more slowly, because health officials have been vigilant about attacking clusters of cases, which presumably wipes out the most dangerous strains. Whenever several human cases appear, even in remote villages in Indonesia or Egypt, local officials and World Health Organization teams move in to kill all the local poultry and dose all the humans with antiviral drugs — the so-called Tamiflu blanket strategy.
Each stifled outbreak robs the virus of the chance to carom wildly through dozens of human hosts as it does in a flock of chickens or ducks. That fends off what virologists most fear: gene-swapping in people infected with both human and avian flu. ...
Whole article: "www.nytimes.com":[ http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/27/health/27flu.html?_r=1&ref=science&oref=slogin]
Researchers sequence western H5N1 virus genomes -
In a paper in the May issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases, an international team of researchers report the first ever large-scale sequencing of western genomes of the deadly avian influenza virus, H5N1 (19.4.2007)
Scientists Reconstruct Migration Of Avian Flu Virus -
UC Irvine researchers have combined genetic and geographic data of the H5N1 avian flu virus to reconstruct its history over the past decade (7.3.2007)
Microfluidic chip helps solve cellular mating puzzle -
The findings, described in the Feb (24.2.2007)
DNA Vaccine For H5N1 Avian Influenza Enters Human Trial -
The first human trial of a DNA vaccine designed to prevent H5N1 avian influenza infection began on December 21, 2006, when the vaccine was administered to the first volunteer at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Clinical Center in Bethesda, MD (13.1.2007)
N. Korea May Have Anti-Bird Flu Vaccine -
"The production of H5N1 vaccine locally developed recently in our country is increased and the compulsory vaccination of it to whole poultry flocks is being done," said Ri Kyong Gun, director of the North's Veterinary and Anti-Epidemic Department, in an interview with AP Television News in Pyongyang (22.12.2006)
